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= j` ` L e s s a n s - d i p l m e a u Q u b e c : p o r t r a i t d e n s e m b l e 1 1 a Assises rgionales sur la persvrance scolaire
des Laurentides, 26 mars 2009
Pierre Fortin, UQAM b b
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N o t e : L e T S D l g e d e 2 7 2 9 a n s s a p p e l l e l e T S D f i n a l .
S o u r c e : S t a t c a n ( E P A 2 0 0 6 ) . E U s 5 & . 2 Le TSD final des 25-34 en Amrique du Nord en 2006 3 3 ( 2 z T S D f i n a l d e s 2 5 - 3 4 a n s a u x t a t s - U n i s e t d a n s l e s c i n q r g i o n s d u C a n a d a e n 2 0 0 6
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P r o v i n c e s d e l A t l a n t i q u e 1 2 %
t a t s - U n i s 1 3 %
P r o v i n c e s d e s P r a i r i e s 1 4 %
S o u r c e : S t a t c a n ( R e c e n s e m e n t 2 0 0 6 ) e t U S C e n s u s B u r e a u . X > Z R 8 , > Le TSD final des 25-34 en 2006 : les Laurentides vs le Qubec ? ? ( 8 % z T S D f i n a l d e s 2 5 - 3 4 a n s a u x t a t s - U n i s e t d a n s l e s c i n q r g i o n s d u C a n a d a e n 2 0 0 6
R g i o n / p a y s T a u x d e s a n s - d i p l m e
O n t a r i o 9 %
C o l o m b i e - B r i t a n n i q u e 9 %
Q u b e c 1 2 %
P r o v i n c e s d e l A t l a n t i q u e 1 2 %
t a t s - U n i s 1 3 %
P r o v i n c e s d e s P r a i r i e s 1 4 %
S o u r c e : S t a t c a n ( R e c e n s e m e n t 2 0 0 6 ) e t U S C e n s u s B u r e a u . X > Z R 8 , C Le TSD final des gnrations successives a considrablement diminu D D $ C E Le TSD final des femmes a diminu beaucoup plus que celui des hommes $ F $ E ( E Rsum 1 8 a n s , l e T S D i n i t i a l e s t d e 3 0 % , m a i s 3 0 a n s l e T S D f i n a l a d i m i n u 1 2 %
2 ) L e T S D f i n a l d u Q u b e c 3 0 a n s e s t m o y e n e n A m r i q u e , m m e s i o n p e u t o b t e n i r u n D E S a p r s s e u l e m e n t 1 1 a n s l c o l e
3 ) L e T S D a c o n s i d r a b l e m e n t d i m i n u a u Q u b e c d e p u i s 5 0 a n s , m a i s p o u r 1 0 0 S D e n O n t a r i o i l y e n a e n c o r e 1 3 7 a u Q u b e c
4 ) A u Q u b e c , p o u r 1 0 0 f e m m e s S D i l y a 1 4 8 h o m m e s S D P " Z ) " Z " ' 1 ( x & L i m p a c t c o n o m i q u e < G Le dcrochage entrane deux sortes de cots conomiques pour la socit H H ( G 1 ) L e r e v e n u d e t o u t l e m o n d e d i m i n u e : a ) m o i n s d e r e v e n u n e t a p r s i m p t s p o u r l e s s a n s - d i p l m e b ) m o i n s d e r e c e t t e s f i s c a l e s p o u r l e s g o u v e r n e m e n t s
2 ) L e s d p e n s e s s o c i a l e s ( p o u r l a i d e s o c i a l e , l a s s u r a n c e - c h m a g e , l a s a n t , l d u c a t i o n , l a j u s t i c e , e t c . ) o c c u p e n t p l u s d e s p a c e d a n s l e s b u d g e t s g o u v e r n e m e n t a u x > L H C a l c u l d i m p a c t p o u r t r o i s e n s e m b l e s % % ( $ L e g a i n f i n a n c i e r c u m u l a t i f s u r l e n s e m b l e d e l a v i e a c t i v e ( 4 5 a n s ) r s u l t a n t d e l a d i p l m a t i o n s e r a c a l c u l p o u r 3 e n s e m b l e s :
1 ) p o u r u n j e u n e d e 2 0 a n s
2 ) p o u r u n e n o u v e l l e c o h o r t e d g e d e 9 0 0 0 0 j e u n e s d o n t l e T S D f i n a l e s t p o r t d e 1 2 % 9 % ( d o n c , p o u r 2 7 0 0 d i p l m s d e p l u s )
3 ) p o u r t o u t e s l e s c o h o r t e s p r s e n t e s e t v e n i r s i l e u r T S D f i n a l e s t p o r t d e 1 2 % 9 % t v Z w + U ( ) & W 1 ) L e g a i n f i n a n c i e r c u m u l a t i f s u r l e n s e m b l e d e l a v i e a c t i v e r s u l t a n t d e l o b t e n t i o n p a r u n j e u n e d e s o n p r e m i e r d i p l m e | | , { L a c q u i s i t i o n d u n d i p l m e h a u s s e l e r e v e n u c u m u l a t i f d e 4 3 9 0 0 0 $ C C ( B f H y p o t h s e s : e n 2 0 0 8 , l a c q u i s i t i o n d u d i p l m e f a i t c r o t r e l e r e v e n u a n n u e l b r u t d e 6 8 0 0 $ : - - r m u n r a t i o n g l o b a l e d u n S D = 2 5 0 0 0 $ - - h a u s s e d u t a u x d e m p l o i = 1 0 , 1 % - - h a u s s e d u s a l a i r e = 1 5 , 5 %
L a r m u n r a t i o n h o r a i r e g l o b a l e d u d i p l m a v a n c e d e 1 , 5 % p a r a n d e p l u s q u e l i n f l a t i o n
R s u l t a t : A u b o u t d e 4 5 a n s d e v i e a c t i v e , s o n g a i n d e r e v e n u c u m u l a t i f p a r r a p p o r t u n s a n s - d i p l m e e s t d e 4 3 9 0 0 0 $ c o n s t a n t s d e 2 0 0 8 Z Z
4 $ f C e t t e h a u s s e d e r e v e n u e s t p a r t a g e 2 / 3 - 1 / 3 e n t r e l e d i p l m e t l t a t I I ( H L e d i p l m v o i t s o n r e v e n u n e t a p r s i m p t s a u g m e n t e r
L e s g o u v e r n e m e n t s v o i e n t l e u r s r e c e t t e s f i s c a l e s a u g m e n t e r
L e p a r t a g e d u g a i n e s t p r o b a b l e m e n t d e l o r d r e d e 2 / 3 - 1 / 3 e n t r e l e d i p l m e t l t a t \ q W 0
V 2 ) L e g a i n f i n a n c i e r c u m u l a t i f p o u r u n e n o u v e l l e c o h o r t e d g e d e 9 0 0 0 0 j e u n e s d o n t l e T S D f i n a l e s t p o r t d e 1 2 % 9 %
: y $ , + , ) , w Rgle de trois L e g a i n c u m u l a t i f s u r l e n s e m b l e d e l a v i e a c t i v e r s u l t a n t d e l a d i p l m a t i o n p o u r u n s e u l j e u n e e s t d e 4 3 9 0 0 0 $
U n e n o u v e l l e c o h o r t e d e 9 0 0 0 0 j e u n e s d o n t l e T S D f i n a l e s t p o r t d e 1 2 % 9 % c o m p t e r a d o n c 3 % x 9 0 0 0 0 = 2 7 0 0 d i p l m s d e p l u s
E t s o n g a i n c u m u l a t i f s e r a d e 4 3 9 0 0 0 x 2 7 0 0 = 1 1 8 5 m i l l i o n s $ c o n s t a n t s d e 2 0 0 8 B T T @ B = 3) Le gain financier cumulatif pour toutes les nouvelles cohortes prsentes et venir si leur TSD final est port de 12% 9%
: $ , 2 , ) , ~ ; Portons le TSD final des nouvelles gnrations de 12% 9% < : ( ; C h a q u e a n n e , p a r t i r d e 2 0 0 9 , l e T S D f i n a l d e c h a q u e n o u v e l l e c o h o r t e q u i a r r i v e 2 0 a n s e s t p o r t d e 1 2 % 9 % ( n i v e a u o n t a r i e n )
L e n o m b r e d e S D d e l a c o h o r t e b a i s s e d e 2 5 %
L e n o m b r e d e s a n s - d i p l m e v a a i n s i b a i s s e r d e n v i r o n 2 8 0 0 e n 2 0 0 9 , d e 5 7 0 0 e n 2 0 1 0 , d e 8 5 0 0 e n 2 0 1 1 , & , e t d e 1 2 8 0 0 0 e n 2 0 5 3
A p r s 2 0 5 3 , l a b a i s s e d u n o m b r e d e S D s e s t a b i l i s e 1 2 8 0 0 0 e t l e T S D g l o b a l , 9 % b 1 V , ' L V N Abaisser le TSD final 9% ajouterait 22 milliards $ la richesse qubcoise O O ( N H y p o t h s e s : l e g a i n a n n u e l b r u t p r o c u r p a r l e d i p l m e e s t d e 6 8 0 0 $ e n 2 0 0 8 e t i l s a c c r o t d e 1 , 5 % p a r a n d e p l u s q u e l i n f l a t i o n
R s u l t a t : p o u r f i n a n c e r t o u s l e s g a i n s f u t u r s c e s d i p l m s e n p l u s , c e l a p r e n d r a i t e n 2 0 0 8 u n c a p i t a l d e 2 2 m i l l i a r d s $ p l a c 6 % a . v . a .
C e s t c o m m e s i l e Q u b e c o b t e n a i t u n e a n n u i t d e 6 % x 2 2 G $ = 1 , 3 G $ p a r a n n e P Q
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2 ) U n e c o h o r t e d g e 1 , 2 G $ 1 8 , 4 M $ ( d e 1 2 9 % )
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2 ) C e s o n t n o s c o n c i t o y e n s a u b a s d e l c h e l l e s o c i a l e q u i b n f i c i e n t s u r t o u t d u g a i n f i n a n c i e r e n g e n d r p a r u n e b a i s s e d u T S D
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4 ) L a d i g n i t p e r s o n n e l l e , l a u t o n o m i e f i n a n c i r e , l i m p l i c a t i o n c i t o y e n n e e t l a v i e s o c i o - c u l t u r e l l e s o n t c o n s i d r a b l e m e n t r e n f o r c e s e P P 4 6 w S o : _
p D Une baisse permanente du TSD ferait conomiser des dpenses sociales E E ( D M o i n s d e S D m o i n s d e d p e n s e s s o c i a l e s : - - a u t o n o m i e f i n a n c i r e a m l i o r e - - m e i l l e u r e s a n t d e s p a r e n t s e t e n f a n t s - - m o i n s d e d i f f i c u l t s s c o l a i r e s d e s e n f a n t s - - m o i n s d e p a t h o l o g i e s f a m i l i a l e s e t s o c i a l e s
D p e n s e s d p l a c e s v e r s d a u t r e s f i n s u t i l e s : - - v e r s d a u t r e s s e r v i c e s p u b l i c s - - v e r s d e s r d u c t i o n s d i m p t s - - v e r s l e F o n d s d e s g n r a t i o n s X r q Cinq questions importantes 1 ) Q u e l l e s i n t e r v e n t i o n s d a n s l a p e t i t e e n f a n c e ?
2 ) P o u r q u o i t a n t d e d i s p a r i t s d a n s l e s t a u x d e d c r o c h a g e e n t r e l e p u b l i c e t l e p r i v , e n t r e l e s q u a r t i e r s , e t e n t r e l e s r g i o n s ?
3 ) P o u r q u o i l e s g a r o n s s o n t - i l s 5 0 % p l u s n o m b r e u x d c r o c h e r q u e l e s f i l l e s ?
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4 ) A u Q u b e c , p o u r 1 0 0 f e m m e s S D i l y a 1 4 8 h o m m e s S D P " Z ) " Z " ' 1 ( x & L i m p a c t c o n o m i q u e < G Le dcrochage entrane deux sortes de cots conomiques pour la socit H H ( G 1 ) L e r e v e n u d e t o u t l e m o n d e d i m i n u e : a ) m o i n s d e r e v e n u n e t a p r s i m p t s p o u r l e s s a n s - d i p l m e b ) m o i n s d e r e c e t t e s f i s c a l e s p o u r l e s g o u v e r n e m e n t s
2 ) L e s d p e n s e s s o c i a l e s ( p o u r l a i d e s o c i a l e , l a s s u r a n c e - c h m a g e , l a s a n t , l d u c a t i o n , l a j u s t i c e , e t c . ) o c c u p e n t p l u s d e s p a c e d a n s l e s b u d g e t s g o u v e r n e m e n t a u x > L H C a l c u l d i m p a c t p o u r t r o i s e n s e m b l e s % % ( $ L e g a i n f i n a n c i e r c u m u l a t i f s u r l e n s e m b l e d e l a v i e a c t i v e ( 4 5 a n s ) r s u l t a n t d e l a d i p l m a t i o n s e r a c a l c u l p o u r 3 e n s e m b l e s :
1 ) p o u r u n j e u n e d e 2 0 a n s
2 ) p o u r u n e n o u v e l l e c o h o r t e d g e d e 9 0 0 0 0 j e u n e s d o n t l e T S D f i n a l e s t p o r t d e 1 2 % 9 % ( d o n c , p o u r 2 7 0 0 d i p l m s d e p l u s )
3 ) p o u r t o u t e s l e s c o h o r t e s p r s e n t e s e t v e n i r s i l e u r T S D f i n a l e s t p o r t d e 1 2 % 9 % t v Z w + U ( ) & W 1 ) L e g a i n f i n a n c i e r c u m u l a t i f s u r l e n s e m b l e d e l a v i e a c t i v e r s u l t a n t d e l o b t e n t i o n p a r u n j e u n e d e s o n p r e m i e r d i p l m e | | , { L a c q u i s i t i o n d u n d i p l m e h a u s s e l e r e v e n u c u m u l a t i f d e 4 3 9 0 0 0 $ C C ( B f H y p o t h s e s : e n 2 0 0 8 , l a c q u i s i t i o n d u d i p l m e f a i t c r o t r e l e r e v e n u a n n u e l b r u t d e 6 8 0 0 $ : - - r m u n r a t i o n g l o b a l e d u n S D = 2 5 0 0 0 $ - - h a u s s e d u t a u x d e m p l o i = 1 0 , 1 % - - h a u s s e d u s a l a i r e = 1 5 , 5 %
L a r m u n r a t i o n h o r a i r e g l o b a l e d u d i p l m a v a n c e d e 1 , 5 % p a r a n d e p l u s q u e l i n f l a t i o n
R s u l t a t : A u b o u t d e 4 5 a n s d e v i e a c t i v e , s o n g a i n d e r e v e n u c u m u l a t i f p a r r a p p o r t u n s a n s - d i p l m e e s t d e 4 3 9 0 0 0 $ c o n s t a n t s d e 2 0 0 8 Z Z
4 $ f C e t t e h a u s s e d e r e v e n u e s t p a r t a g e 2 / 3 - 1 / 3 e n t r e l e d i p l m e t l t a t I I ( H L e d i p l m v o i t s o n r e v e n u n e t a p r s i m p t s a u g m e n t e r
L e s g o u v e r n e m e n t s v o i e n t l e u r s r e c e t t e s f i s c a l e s a u g m e n t e r
L e p a r t a g e d u g a i n e s t p r o b a b l e m e n t d e l o r d r e d e 2 / 3 - 1 / 3 e n t r e l e d i p l m e t l t a t \ q W 0
V 2 ) L e g a i n f i n a n c i e r c u m u l a t i f p o u r u n e n o u v e l l e c o h o r t e d g e d e 9 0 0 0 0 j e u n e s d o n t l e T S D f i n a l e s t p o r t d e 1 2 % 9 %
: y $ , + , ) , w Rgle de trois L e g a i n c u m u l a t i f s u r l e n s e m b l e d e l a v i e a c t i v e r s u l t a n t d e l a d i p l m a t i o n p o u r u n s e u l j e u n e e s t d e 4 3 9 0 0 0 $
U n e n o u v e l l e c o h o r t e d e 9 0 0 0 0 j e u n e s d o n t l e T S D f i n a l e s t p o r t d e 1 2 % 9 % c o m p t e r a d o n c 3 % x 9 0 0 0 0 = 2 7 0 0 d i p l m s d e p l u s
E t s o n g a i n c u m u l a t i f s e r a d e 4 3 9 0 0 0 x 2 7 0 0 = 1 1 8 5 m i l l i o n s $ c o n s t a n t s d e 2 0 0 8 B T T @ B = 3) Le gain financier cumulatif pour toutes les nouvelles cohortes prsentes et venir si leur TSD final est port de 12% 9%
: $ , 2 , ) , ~ ; Portons le TSD final des nouvelles gnrations de 12% 9% < : ( ; C h a q u e a n n e , p a r t i r d e 2 0 0 9 , l e T S D f i n a l d e c h a q u e n o u v e l l e c o h o r t e q u i a r r i v e 2 0 a n s e s t p o r t d e 1 2 % 9 % ( n i v e a u o n t a r i e n )
L e n o m b r e d e S D d e l a c o h o r t e b a i s s e d e 2 5 %
L e n o m b r e d e s a n s - d i p l m e v a a i n s i b a i s s e r d e n v i r o n 2 8 0 0 e n 2 0 0 9 , d e 5 7 0 0 e n 2 0 1 0 , d e 8 5 0 0 e n 2 0 1 1 , & , e t d e 1 2 8 0 0 0 e n 2 0 5 3
A p r s 2 0 5 3 , l a b a i s s e d u n o m b r e d e S D s e s t a b i l i s e 1 2 8 0 0 0 e t l e T S D g l o b a l , 9 % b 1 V , ' L V N Abaisser le TSD final 9% ajouterait 22 milliards $ la richesse qubcoise O O ( N H y p o t h s e s : l e g a i n a n n u e l b r u t p r o c u r p a r l e d i p l m e e s t d e 6 8 0 0 $ e n 2 0 0 8 e t i l s a c c r o t d e 1 , 5 % p a r a n d e p l u s q u e l i n f l a t i o n
R s u l t a t : p o u r f i n a n c e r t o u s l e s g a i n s f u t u r s c e s d i p l m s e n p l u s , c e l a p r e n d r a i t e n 2 0 0 8 u n c a p i t a l d e 2 2 m i l l i a r d s $ p l a c 6 % a . v . a .
C e s t c o m m e s i l e Q u b e c o b t e n a i t u n e a n n u i t d e 6 % x 2 2 G $ = 1 , 3 G $ p a r a n n e P Q
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& Synthse des rsultats G a i n d e r e v e n u r s u l t a n t d e l o b t e n t i o n d u n d i p l m e ( e n d o l l a r s d e 2 0 0 8 )
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2 ) U n e c o h o r t e d g e 1 , 2 G $ 1 8 , 4 M $ ( d e 1 2 9 % )
3 ) T o u t e s l e s c o h o r t e s 1 , 3 G $ f u t u r e s ( d e 1 2 9 % ) h K
! L i m p a c t s o c i a l < z L a n n u i t d e 1 , 3 G $ s o u s - e s t i m e l e g a i n t o t a l p o u r l a s o c i t . > ( ( ( = 1 ) L a b a i s s e d u T S D p e r m e t l t a t d e d p l a c e r s e s d p e n s e s s o c i a l e s v e r s d a u t r e s f i n s u t i l e s
2 ) C e s o n t n o s c o n c i t o y e n s a u b a s d e l c h e l l e s o c i a l e q u i b n f i c i e n t s u r t o u t d u g a i n f i n a n c i e r e n g e n d r p a r u n e b a i s s e d u T S D
3 ) D e s r e t o m b e s f a v o r a b l e s p o u r l e s g n r a t i o n s f u t u r e s : l e s e n f a n t s d e s d i p l m s d c r o c h e n t m o i n s q u e l e s e n f a n t s d e s d c r o c h e u r s
4 ) L a d i g n i t p e r s o n n e l l e , l a u t o n o m i e f i n a n c i r e , l i m p l i c a t i o n c i t o y e n n e e t l a v i e s o c i o - c u l t u r e l l e s o n t c o n s i d r a b l e m e n t r e n f o r c e s e P P 4 6 w S o : _
p D Une baisse permanente du TSD ferait conomiser des dpenses sociales E E ( D M o i n s d e S D m o i n s d e d p e n s e s s o c i a l e s : - - a u t o n o m i e f i n a n c i r e a m l i o r e - - m e i l l e u r e s a n t d e s p a r e n t s e t e n f a n t s - - m o i n s d e d i f f i c u l t s s c o l a i r e s d e s e n f a n t s - - m o i n s d e p a t h o l o g i e s f a m i l i a l e s e t s o c i a l e s
D p e n s e s d p l a c e s v e r s d a u t r e s f i n s u t i l e s : - - v e r s d a u t r e s s e r v i c e s p u b l i c s - - v e r s d e s r d u c t i o n s d i m p t s - - v e r s l e F o n d s d e s g n r a t i o n s X r q Cinq questions importantes 1 ) Q u e l l e s i n t e r v e n t i o n s d a n s l a p e t i t e e n f a n c e ?
2 ) P o u r q u o i t a n t d e d i s p a r i t s d a n s l e s t a u x d e d c r o c h a g e e n t r e l e p u b l i c e t l e p r i v , e n t r e l e s q u a r t i e r s , e t e n t r e l e s r g i o n s ?
3 ) P o u r q u o i l e s g a r o n s s o n t - i l s 5 0 % p l u s n o m b r e u x d c r o c h e r q u e l e s f i l l e s ?
4 ) P o u r q u o i p l u s d e d c r o c h a g e a v a n t 2 0 a n s a u Q u b e c m a l g r u n D E S m o i n s l o n g o b t e n i r ?
5 ) P o u r q u o i l O n t a r i o , l a N o r v g e , l A l l e m a g n e , l a C o r e , l I r l a n d e , e t c . , r u s s i s s e n t - i l s m i e u x ? Z !
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} On-screen Show UQAM r ' Times New Roman Symbol Modle par dfaut 1 Les sans-diplme au Qubec : portrait densemble Le taux de sans-diplme (TSD) Le TSD baisse avec lge ' Le TSD des 20-24 dans les Laurentides 3 Le TSD final des 25-34 en Amrique du Nord en 2006 D Le TSD final des gnrations successives a considrablement diminu F Le TSD final des femmes a diminu beaucoup plus que celui des hommes Rsum H Le dcrochage entrane deux sortes de cots conomiques pour la socit % Calcul dimpact pour trois ensembles C Lacquisition dun diplme hausse le revenu cumulatif de 439 000 $ I Cette hausse de revenu est partage 2/3-1/3 entre le diplm et ltat Rgle de trois < Portons le TSD final des nouvelles gnrations de 12% 9% O Abaisser le TSD final 9% ajouterait 22 milliards $ la richesse qubcoise Synthse des rsultats > Lannuit de 1,3 G$ sous-estime le gain total pour la socit E Une baisse permanente du TSD ferait conomiser des dpenses sociales Cinq questions importantes Encore beaucoup faire Fonts Used Design Template
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D e B l a i n v i l l e 1 7 , 6 M i r a b e l 2 1 , 5
D e u x - M o n t a g n e s 2 1 , 4 P a y s - d e n - H a u t 1 4 , 7
R i v i r e - d u - N o r d 2 2 , 3 A r g e n t e u i l 2 8 , 5
L a u r e n t i d e s 1 9 , 9 M o n t r a l ( R M ) 1 3 , 4
A n t o i n e - L a b e l l e 2 4 , 7 T o t a l Q u b e c 1 5 , 2
S o u r c e : S t a t c a n ( R e c e n s e m e n t 2 0 0 6 ) e t U S C e n s u s B u r e a u . k / 9 > 2 Le TSD final des 25-34 en Amrique du Nord en 2006 3 3 ( 2 z T S D f i n a l d e s 2 5 - 3 4 a n s a u x t a t s - U n i s e t d a n s l e s c i n q r g i o n s d u C a n a d a e n 2 0 0 6
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O n t a r i o 9 %
C o l o m b i e - B r i t a n n i q u e 9 %
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t a t s - U n i s 1 3 %
P r o v i n c e s d e s P r a i r i e s 1 4 %
S o u r c e : S t a t c a n ( R e c e n s e m e n t 2 0 0 6 ) e t U S C e n s u s B u r e a u . X > Z R 8 , C Le TSD final des gnrations successives a considrablement diminu D D $ C E Le TSD final des femmes a diminu beaucoup plus que celui des hommes $ F $ E ( E Rsum 1 8 a n s , l e T S D i n i t i a l e s t d e 3 0 % , m a i s 3 0 a n s l e T S D f i n a l a d i m i n u 1 2 %
2 ) L e T S D f i n a l d u Q u b e c 3 0 a n s e s t m o y e n e n A m r i q u e , m m e s i o n p e u t o b t e n i r u n D E S a p r s s e u l e m e n t 1 1 a n s l c o l e
3 ) L e T S D a c o n s i d r a b l e m e n t d i m i n u a u Q u b e c d e p u i s 5 0 a n s , m a i s p o u r 1 0 0 S D e n O n t a r i o i l y e n a e n c o r e 1 3 7 a u Q u b e c
4 ) A u Q u b e c , p o u r 1 0 0 f e m m e s S D i l y a 1 4 8 h o m m e s S D P " Z ) " Z " ' 1 ( x & L i m p a c t c o n o m i q u e < G Le dcrochage entrane deux sortes de cots conomiques pour la socit H H ( G 1 ) L e r e v e n u d e t o u t l e m o n d e d i m i n u e : a ) m o i n s d e r e v e n u n e t a p r s i m p t s p o u r l e s s a n s - d i p l m e b ) m o i n s d e r e c e t t e s f i s c a l e s p o u r l e s g o u v e r n e m e n t s
2 ) L e s d p e n s e s s o c i a l e s ( p o u r l a i d e s o c i a l e , l a s s u r a n c e - c h m a g e , l a s a n t , l d u c a t i o n , l a j u s t i c e , e t c . ) o c c u p e n t p l u s d e s p a c e d a n s l e s b u d g e t s g o u v e r n e m e n t a u x > L H C a l c u l d i m p a c t p o u r t r o i s e n s e m b l e s % % ( $ L e g a i n f i n a n c i e r c u m u l a t i f s u r l e n s e m b l e d e l a v i e a c t i v e ( 4 5 a n s ) r s u l t a n t d e l a d i p l m a t i o n s e r a c a l c u l p o u r 3 e n s e m b l e s :
1 ) p o u r u n j e u n e d e 2 0 a n s
2 ) p o u r u n e n o u v e l l e c o h o r t e d g e d e 9 0 0 0 0 j e u n e s d o n t l e T S D f i n a l e s t p o r t d e 1 2 % 9 % ( d o n c , p o u r 2 7 0 0 d i p l m s d e p l u s )
3 ) p o u r t o u t e s l e s c o h o r t e s p r s e n t e s e t v e n i r s i l e u r T S D f i n a l e s t p o r t d e 1 2 % 9 % t v Z w + U ( ) & W 1 ) L e g a i n f i n a n c i e r c u m u l a t i f s u r l e n s e m b l e d e l a v i e a c t i v e r s u l t a n t d e l o b t e n t i o n p a r u n j e u n e d e s o n p r e m i e r d i p l m e | | , { L a c q u i s i t i o n d u n d i p l m e h a u s s e l e r e v e n u c u m u l a t i f d e 4 3 9 0 0 0 $ C C ( B f H y p o t h s e s : e n 2 0 0 8 , l a c q u i s i t i o n d u d i p l m e f a i t c r o t r e l e r e v e n u a n n u e l b r u t d e 6 8 0 0 $ : - - r m u n r a t i o n g l o b a l e d u n S D = 2 5 0 0 0 $ - - h a u s s e d u t a u x d e m p l o i = 1 0 , 1 % - - h a u s s e d u s a l a i r e = 1 5 , 5 %
L a r m u n r a t i o n h o r a i r e g l o b a l e d u d i p l m a v a n c e d e 1 , 5 % p a r a n d e p l u s q u e l i n f l a t i o n
R s u l t a t : A u b o u t d e 4 5 a n s d e v i e a c t i v e , s o n g a i n d e r e v e n u c u m u l a t i f p a r r a p p o r t u n s a n s - d i p l m e e s t d e 4 3 9 0 0 0 $ c o n s t a n t s d e 2 0 0 8 Z Z
4 $ f C e t t e h a u s s e d e r e v e n u e s t p a r t a g e 2 / 3 - 1 / 3 e n t r e l e d i p l m e t l t a t I I ( H L e d i p l m v o i t s o n r e v e n u n e t a p r s i m p t s a u g m e n t e r
L e s g o u v e r n e m e n t s v o i e n t l e u r s r e c e t t e s f i s c a l e s a u g m e n t e r
L e p a r t a g e d u g a i n e s t p r o b a b l e m e n t d e l o r d r e d e 2 / 3 - 1 / 3 e n t r e l e d i p l m e t l t a t \ q W 0
V 2 ) L e g a i n f i n a n c i e r c u m u l a t i f p o u r u n e n o u v e l l e c o h o r t e d g e d e 9 0 0 0 0 j e u n e s d o n t l e T S D f i n a l e s t p o r t d e 1 2 % 9 %
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Slide Titles _t CMST C M S T I e m p 1 : y $ , + , ) , w Rgle de trois L e g a i n c u m u l a t i f s u r l e n s e m b l e d e l a v i e a c t i v e r s u l t a n t d e l a d i p l m a t i o n p o u r u n s e u l j e u n e e s t d e 4 3 9 0 0 0 $
U n e n o u v e l l e c o h o r t e d e 9 0 0 0 0 j e u n e s d o n t l e T S D f i n a l e s t p o r t d e 1 2 % 9 % c o m p t e r a d o n c 3 % x 9 0 0 0 0 = 2 7 0 0 d i p l m s d e p l u s
E t s o n g a i n c u m u l a t i f s e r a d e 4 3 9 0 0 0 x 2 7 0 0 = 1 1 8 5 m i l l i o n s $ c o n s t a n t s d e 2 0 0 8 B T T @ B = 3) Le gain financier cumulatif pour toutes les nouvelles cohortes prsentes et venir si leur TSD final est port de 12% 9%
: $ , 2 , ) , ~ ; Portons le TSD final des nouvelles gnrations de 12% 9% < : ( ; C h a q u e a n n e , p a r t i r d e 2 0 0 9 , l e T S D f i n a l d e c h a q u e n o u v e l l e c o h o r t e q u i a r r i v e 2 0 a n s e s t p o r t d e 1 2 % 9 % ( n i v e a u o n t a r i e n )
L e n o m b r e d e S D d e l a c o h o r t e b a i s s e d e 2 5 %
L e n o m b r e d e s a n s - d i p l m e v a a i n s i b a i s s e r d e n v i r o n 2 8 0 0 e n 2 0 0 9 , d e 5 7 0 0 e n 2 0 1 0 , d e 8 5 0 0 e n 2 0 1 1 , & , e t d e 1 2 8 0 0 0 e n 2 0 5 3
A p r s 2 0 5 3 , l a b a i s s e d u n o m b r e d e S D s e s t a b i l i s e 1 2 8 0 0 0 e t l e T S D g l o b a l , 9 % b 1 V , ' L V N Abaisser le TSD final 9% ajouterait 22 milliards $ la richesse qubcoise O O ( N H y p o t h s e s : l e g a i n a n n u e l b r u t p r o c u r p a r l e d i p l m e e s t d e 6 8 0 0 $ e n 2 0 0 8 e t i l s a c c r o t d e 1 , 5 % p a r a n d e p l u s q u e l i n f l a t i o n
R s u l t a t : p o u r f i n a n c e r t o u s l e s g a i n s f u t u r s c e s d i p l m s e n p l u s , c e l a p r e n d r a i t e n 2 0 0 8 u n c a p i t a l d e 2 2 m i l l i a r d s $ p l a c 6 % a . v . a .
C e s t c o m m e s i l e Q u b e c o b t e n a i t u n e a n n u i t d e 6 % x 2 2 G $ = 1 , 3 G $ p a r a n n e P Q
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& Synthse des rsultats G a i n d e r e v e n u r s u l t a n t d e l o b t e n t i o n d u n d i p l m e ( e n d o l l a r s d e 2 0 0 8 )
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1 ) U n s e u l j e u n e 4 3 9 k $ 6 8 0 0 $
2 ) U n e c o h o r t e d g e 1 , 2 G $ 1 8 , 4 M $ ( d e 1 2 9 % )
3 ) T o u t e s l e s c o h o r t e s 1 , 3 G $ f u t u r e s ( d e 1 2 9 % ) h K
! L i m p a c t s o c i a l < z L a n n u i t d e 1 , 3 G $ s o u s - e s t i m e l e g a i n t o t a l p o u r l a s o c i t . > ( ( ( = 1 ) L a b a i s s e d u T S D p e r m e t l t a t d e d p l a c e r s e s d p e n s e s s o c i a l e s v e r s d a u t r e s f i n s u t i l e s
2 ) C e s o n t n o s c o n c i t o y e n s a u b a s d e l c h e l l e s o c i a l e q u i b n f i c i e n t s u r t o u t d u g a i n f i n a n c i e r e n g e n d r p a r u n e b a i s s e d u T S D
3 ) D e s r e t o m b e s f a v o r a b l e s p o u r l e s g n r a t i o n s f u t u r e s : l e s e n f a n t s d e s d i p l m s d c r o c h e n t m o i n s q u e l e s e n f a n t s d e s d c r o c h e u r s
4 ) L a d i g n i t p e r s o n n e l l e , l a u t o n o m i e f i n a n c i r e , l i m p l i c a t i o n c i t o y e n n e e t l a v i e s o c i o - c u l t u r e l l e s o n t c o n s i d r a b l e m e n t r e n f o r c e s e P P 4 6 w S o : _
p D Une baisse permanente du TSD ferait conomiser des dpenses sociales E E ( D M o i n s d e S D m o i n s d e d p e n s e s s o c i a l e s : - - a u t o n o m i e f i n a n c i r e a m l i o r e - - m e i l l e u r e s a n t d e s p a r e n t s e t e n f a n t s - - m o i n s d e d i f f i c u l t s s c o l a i r e s d e s e n f a n t s - - m o i n s d e p a t h o l o g i e s f a m i l i a l e s e t s o c i a l e s
D p e n s e s d p l a c e s v e r s d a u t r e s f i n s u t i l e s : - - v e r s d a u t r e s s e r v i c e s p u b l i c s - - v e r s d e s r d u c t i o n s d i m p t s - - v e r s l e F o n d s d e s g n r a t i o n s X r q Cinq questions importantes 1 ) Q u e l l e s i n t e r v e n t i o n s d a n s l a p e t i t e e n f a n c e ?
2 ) P o u r q u o i t a n t d e d i s p a r i t s d a n s l e s t a u x d e d c r o c h a g e e n t r e l e p u b l i c e t l e p r i v , e n t r e l e s q u a r t i e r s , e t e n t r e l e s r g i o n s ?
3 ) P o u r q u o i l e s g a r o n s s o n t - i l s 5 0 % p l u s n o m b r e u x d c r o c h e r q u e l e s f i l l e s ?
4 ) P o u r q u o i p l u s d e d c r o c h a g e a v a n t 2 0 a n s a u Q u b e c m a l g r u n D E S m o i n s l o n g o b t e n i r ?
5 ) P o u r q u o i l O n t a r i o , l a N o r v g e , l A l l e m a g n e , l a C o r e , l I r l a n d e , e t c . , r u s s i s s e n t - i l s m i e u x ? Z !
r y ? l Encore beaucoup faire L e t a u x d e s a n s - d i p l m e a u Q u b e c a n o r m m e n t d i m i n u d e p u i s 4 0 a n s
M a i s i l e s t e n c o r e l e v p a r c o m p a r a i s o n l O n t a r i o , l a N o r v g e , l A l l e m a g n e , l a C o r e , l I r l a n d e , a u J a p o n , e t c .
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C o n d i t i o n s d e s u c c s : 1 ) c o m p r e n d r e a v a n t d a g i r , 2 ) v o i r c e q u i m a r c h e a i l l e u r s , 3 ) f a i r e c o n f i a n c e l i n i t i a t i v e l o c a l e d G &
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